-Hari Prakash Chand
Nepal’s politics is moving forward in an incredible way. On 17 May 2018, the then CPN (UML) and the CPN (Maoist Center) merged to form the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN). Less than three years after that, the dispute of the CPN reached its climax when the parliament is dissolved by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on 20 December 2020. A meeting of the CPN chaired by the Prime Minister on 22 December decided to release the party’s executive authority of Pushpa Kamal Dahal and limit him only to the post of chairman. Similarly, it was decided to remove party spokesperson Narayan Kazi Shrestha from his responsibility and hand over to Foreign Minister Pradip Gyawali.
On the other hand, a meeting of another group of CPN led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal on the same day decided to remove party chairman KP Sharma Oli from the post and elect a leader of CPN Madhab Nepal as a chairman. In this way, the people, hoping for stability, development, and prosperity, who had voted to CPN for the two-thirds majority, became politically divided in the game of change of chairman and spokesperson.
Hari Bansh Jha writes in ‘The Print’ under the headline “Nepal’s NCP split came after visits of India’s top brass: China is worried”, “It could be a coincidence that the NCP was split immediately after the visit of India’s top brass to Nepal”. Within a few weeks of October-November of 2020, Chief of the Indian Spy Agency RAW Samant Goel, Indian Army chief Manoj Mukund Narwane, and Foreign Secretary Harsh Bardhan Sringla had visited Nepal.
Shortly after Shringla’s two-day visit to Nepal on November 26, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe arrived in Kathmandu on November 28. After that, the Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqui intensified the meeting with the President, Prime Minister and senior leaders of the ruling party. Immediately after the split of the CPN, a high-level delegation led by Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), arrived in Nepal and tried their best to stop the CPN from splitting, analysts say.
The United States, a major power in Nepal’s geopolitics, has also been active in recent times. After Joe Biden took over as US President, US Ambassador to Nepal Randy W. Berry began the meeting to clarify the Biden administration’s Nepal policy. On January 29, he paid the courtesy call on Commander-in-Chief of the Nepal Army, Purnachandra Thapa. Earlier, Ambassador Berry had met Prime Minister Mr. KP Sharma Oli, CPN leader Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal, Mr. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and the president of Nepali Congress Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba. Analysts say that his meeting with Mr. Nepal and Mr. Dahal after the split of the CPN can be understood in the sense that the United States has recognized the split of the CPN. This is seen as a US effort to strengthen ties with both factions of the CPN.
Gopal Khanal, former foreign affairs expert to the Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, said, “Even if the split of the CPN does not bring immediate changes in Nepal’s foreign affairs, the country may have to pay the price in the long run.” Although the connectivity to the north and south initiated by the Prime Minister Oli will not be affected much, Mr. Khanal opines that the map of Nepal released by the Oli government including Limpiyadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani may be affected in the future by the change in the internal balance of power. His analysis is that the possible future change of government due to political turmoil could affect the return of land included in Nepal’s new map.
During the historical visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Nepal in 2019, China and Nepal have agreed to build the Koshi Economic Corridor, Gandaki Economic Corridor and Karnali Economic Corridor.” In addition, China has agreed to provide Nepal with four Chinese ports, namely Tianjin, Shenzhen, Lianyungang, and Zhanjiang, and three dry ports named Lanzhou, Lhasa, and Xigatse as well as transportation facilities to Nepal. If the agreement made during Prime Minister Oli’s visit to China in 2016 to provide transit facilities to Nepal from the Chinese port of Tianjin is implemented, Nepal will reach out to the Northeast Asian countries and beyond and Nepal’s foreign affairs will enter toward a new era of Nepal’s world affairs. Similarly, the timely implementation of the Sigatse-Kathmandu rail link agreement with China will add a new dimension to Nepal’s connectivity.
In addition, if Nepal can take a diplomatic initiative with India and Bangladesh to rennovate and upgrade the Phulbari-Banglabandha corridor, Nepal will play a key role in building another new corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative namely China-Nepal-India-Bangladesh (CNIB) Economic Corridor. Prof. Dr. Khadga KC and Hari Prakash Chand have mentioned this in a research-based article. If the Raxaul-Kathmandu rail link agreement between Nepal and India can be materialized, Nepal will be transformed into a country connecting the two great nations of the 21st century in the international arena and it will make Nepal’s world affairs visible, known and honored.
With the development of the COVID-19 vaccine, India pursued vaccination diplomacy. It is assumed that Indian influence in Nepal will increase along with the provision of one million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Nepal free of cost. A few days later, the meeting of the Council of Ministers on January 29 decided to hand over the construction of the lower Arun to the Indian company Sutlej. From this, it can be inferred that Indian vaccination diplomacy has been successful in Nepal.
During a telephone conversation between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Nepali counterpart Pradip Gyawali on 5 February, he pledged to provide 500,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccine to Nepal as a grant. The government seems to be trying to import more vaccines from other parts of the world. Thus, the government seems to be trying to prevent the impact of the split of the CPN on Nepal’s foreign affairs, but due to the new situation, foreign affairs will change in the long run and it will become a complicated situation for Nepal. Domestic policy has a direct or indirect effect on foreign affairs. In order to prevent the country from this, the government has to seriously prepare for necessary precautions to mitigate the serious implications of the current internal situation on foreign affairs and vice versa.
The Author is a PhD Candidate in International Relations and Diplomacy at Tribhuvan University, Nepal, and associated with Kathmandu School of Law (KSL)